122
FXUS64 KLZK 031111
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
611 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
-A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS, A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS, THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, AND MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
-A FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST AS A SERIES OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES APPROACH THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POP CHANCES VERY LOW
-HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO SOUND SIMILAR TO A SKIPPING SONG ON A
CD (REPEATING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERALL. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT POPS WILL BE LOW AND
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT EQUATE TO ENOUGH TO SETTLE THE DUST.
THE TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS ARKANSAS RANGING FROM THE MID
90S INTO VALUES AROUND AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109
DEGREES. INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BROADEN OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE
REGION, BUT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE FIXATES DIRECTLY OVER ARKANSAS. A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE, BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE,
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
IN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODEL ENSEMBLES,
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS A GOOD BET THAT THE UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY TEN DAYS (POSSIBLY
LONGER). AS EXPECTED, OVER THIS TEN DAY STRETCH, HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERALL WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WORSEN ALONG WITH SOILS AND VEGETATION THAT CONTINUES TO
DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 100 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 20 0
HARRISON AR 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 96 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 98 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 98 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ007-008-016-017-025-
031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230-
237-238.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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