360
FXUS64 KLZK 050539
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- A FEW SCATTERED PM SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS;
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
- HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENSURES HOT/DRY CONDS PERSIST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE ACROSS AR BENEATH AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE. THIS PERSISTENT RIDGE HAS BROUGHT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TO MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS. THERE ARE SOME WINNERS IN REGARDS TO AUGUST MONTHLY PRECIP,
BUT THAT DOES NOT SPEAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WHICH ENDED UP
AT VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW AVERAGE MONTHLY/SEASONAL RAINFALL.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN AR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES E TO W
AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL STRAY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR THE
SAME REASON/LOCATION AS DESCRIBED ON FRIDAY. THESE TIMES OF DAY ARE
FAVORED DUE TO PEAK HEATING COUPLED WITH MAXIMUM INSTABILITY.
LASTLY, SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY
BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL WORK TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. ALL OF THESE PRECIP CHANCES ARE <20% WITH LITTLE TO
NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED IN AN PARTICULAR LOCATION. THIS
IS PRETTY MUCH IT AS FOR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS
EVEN LONGER BASED ON LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SRN
MS VALLEY. THIS WILL WORK AGAINST POP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO >100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 100-110 MOST AFTERNOONS. GIVEN THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE AR RIVER VALLEY, CNTRL AR, AND
MUCH OF ERN AR WHERE APPARENT T'S NEAR OR GREATER THAN 105 OVERLAP
WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HEAT INDEX
VALUES IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AND SOME OF TUESDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RELIEF
SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE S/SW LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETREAT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE STATE WITH ALL
COUNTIES NOW HIGHLIGHTED BY "HIGH" WILDFIRE DANGER. BURN BANS OCCUPY
ALL BUT 6 OF 75 AR COUNTIES. THESE 6 COUNTIES WERE MAINLY CONFINED
TO N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AR WHERE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURRED IN
THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. WITH LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN
THE FORECAST, DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE/PLANT MOISTURE WILL WORSEN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND INCREASE THE STATEWIDE WILDFIRE THREAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON SAT, MID-CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE PRECIP
MENTION AT ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ON SAT SHOULD BE ERLY
AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 104 77 104 72 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 99 73 101 73 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 98 74 98 71 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 102 76 103 76 / 0 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 102 79 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 98 76 101 76 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 101 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 99 74 100 71 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 100 77 101 73 / 10 0 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 100 75 101 74 / 0 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 102 76 104 75 / 10 0 10 0
SEARCY AR 101 76 102 73 / 10 0 10 0
STUTTGART AR 101 77 102 75 / 0 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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