059
FXUS64 KLZK 061742
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING LOWER HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- UPPER RIDGE ENSURES HOT/DRY WX PERSISTS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AR BENEATH AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN HEADING
THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD INCREASE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SERVE TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WORK WEEK. HAVING SAID THAT, POP CHANCES REMAIN THE FORECAST TODAY
(20%-30%) DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT; ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS WILL BE PROVIDED BELOW.
AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE STATE
FROM THE NE TODAY, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES. GIVEN THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE LITTLE ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED. IF EARLY
AFTERNOON PRECIP DOES NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED OR STALLS BY JUST A
FEW HOURS, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 110 IN PLACES BEFORE
CLOUDS, PRECIP, AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE OH VALLEY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 12PM AND 4PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. DESPITE BETTER POP CHANCES THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY, LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN AN PARTICULAR LOCATION.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM APPARENT T'S IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RELIEF SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO THE
S/SW ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETREAT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THE GOOD
NEWS FOR NOW IS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LITTLE ROCK CWA.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A POTENTIAL
WEAKENING/RETROGRADING OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR WEATHER SYSTEMS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE STATE. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE STATE WITH ALL
COUNTIES NOW HIGHLIGHTED BY "HIGH" WILDFIRE DANGER. BURN BANS OCCUPY
ALL BUT 3 OF 75 AR COUNTIES. THESE 3 COUNTIES WERE MAINLY CONFINED
TO N-CNTRL/CNTRL AR WHERE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE
LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. WITH LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, DECREASING
SOIL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE STATEWIDE WILDFIRE THREAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE STATE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF TSRA/SHRA. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RETURN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 96 66 99 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 73 100 69 100 / 20 20 10 0
HARRISON AR 71 95 67 97 / 20 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 100 70 100 / 20 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 98 72 98 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 75 98 73 98 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 73 101 68 100 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 94 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 97 69 98 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 98 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 72 97 68 99 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 74 98 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ042-052>055-
062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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