511
FXUS64 KLZK 071732
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF W, SW, S, SE AR TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SW AR THIS AFTERNOON
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING LOWER HEAT INDICES TODAY AND TUESDAY
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT BY LATE WEEK MAY INTRODUCE RAIN
CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
ABNORMALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF AR
BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM NE TO SW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SW/W/S AR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ARKLATEX'S REGION. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG STORM.
TEMPS OVER SW/W/S AR WILL BE HOT THANKS TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THIS PORTION
OF THE STATE, HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE E/NERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING
BELOW 105 DEGREES AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NE. DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO THE S/SW ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE RETREAT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING WEAKENING/RETROGRADING
OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH
BROAD NW FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. UNSETTLED WEATHER MIGHT MAKE
A RETURN ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE STATE. HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR EACH OF THESE DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY SRN HALF
OF AR MAY NOT SEE MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THESE THREE
DAYS. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY,
SHRA/TSRA WERE KEPT OUT OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 71 100 73 98 / 10 20 0 10
HARRISON AR 67 97 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 101 74 100 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 73 99 75 96 / 0 20 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 69 100 71 99 / 10 20 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 68 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 70 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 68 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 71 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ042-052>055-
062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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