042
FXUS64 KLZK 080533
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF W, SW, S, SE AR TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SW AR THIS AFTERNOON
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING LOWER HEAT INDICES TODAY AND TUESDAY
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT BY LATE WEEK MAY INTRODUCE RAIN
CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
ABNORMALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF AR
BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM NE TO SW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SW/W/S AR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ARKLATEX'S REGION. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG STORM.
TEMPS OVER SW/W/S AR WILL BE HOT THANKS TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THIS PORTION
OF THE STATE, HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE E/NERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING
BELOW 105 DEGREES AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NE. DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO THE S/SW ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE RETREAT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING WEAKENING/RETROGRADING
OF THE RIDGE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH
BROAD NW FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. UNSETTLED WEATHER MIGHT MAKE
A RETURN ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE STATE. HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR EACH OF THESE DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY SRN HALF
OF AR MAY NOT SEE MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THESE THREE
DAYS. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER NRN/CNTRL/SE TERMINALS ON TUES BUT DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, OPTED TO NOT MENTION AT
ANY TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE E/NE TO S/SE AT AROUND
10 KTS ON TUES. FOR AFTERNOON SHRA THAT DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARDS/JUST AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 99 73 101 75 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 100 73 98 72 / 10 0 20 0
HARRISON AR 97 72 98 73 / 0 0 20 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 101 74 100 74 / 0 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 99 75 96 74 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 100 71 99 71 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 96 70 99 72 / 0 0 10 30
NEWPORT AR 98 75 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 99 73 101 74 / 0 0 10 0
SEARCY AR 99 72 100 73 / 0 0 10 0
STUTTGART AR 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ031-032-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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