666
FXUS64 KLZK 231137
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
- NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN WILDFIRE DANGER/DROUGHT CONDS THE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LOW STRATUS WAS EXPANDING OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL AND NE AR THIS MORNING VIA INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SW AR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER ON THIS MORNING.
TODAY, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ON NERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.
ON A LARGER SCALE, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A PAIR OF TROUGHS INVOF THE DESERT SW AND E
ATLANTIC COAST, RESPECTIVELY. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY PROVIDING NERLY WINDS TO AR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION, ALBEIT MODIFYING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
GOOD NEWS IS NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS DEW PTS
REMAIN AT A COMFORTABLE LEVEL THANKS TO SAID NERLY WINDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO THE NW. A SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAVERSE
THIS NW FLOW, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) TO NW HALF OF
THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE S/SW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE WEAK DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
VERY LOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH LOWS INCREASING INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD IN REGARDS
TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS. SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AS PW'S AND DEW PTS RECOVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SW AR THROUGH MID-MORNING THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-DAY. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NE AT 10-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 91 62 86 60 / 20 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 81 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 61 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 87 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 88 59 85 58 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 81 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 84 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 87 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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