345
FXUS64 KLZK 250515
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
- NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN WILDFIRE DANGER/DROUGHT CONDS THIS WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NE AR THIS MORNING FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED STREAMING EWRD OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE STATE; THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE NERLY AROUND 10
MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 MPH. DEW PTS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN
THE 50S TODAY, KEEPING APPARENT T'S CLOSE TO ACTUAL T'S.
ON A LARGER SCALE, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A PAIR OF
TROUGHS INVOF THE DESERT SW AND E ATLANTIC COAST, RESPECTIVELY. NEAR
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY
PROVIDING NERLY WINDS TO AR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, ALBEIT MODIFYING
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO HEAT
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS DEW PTS REMAIN AT A COMFORTABLE
LEVELS THANKS TO NERLY WINDS. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO THE WNW. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAVERSE THIS NWRLY FLOW, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) TO NW HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE S/SW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME
THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS INCREASING
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH WHEREAS THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A BROADER, WEAKER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. WHILE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND GREATEST POTENTIAL QPF OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
AS PW'S AND DEW PTS RECOVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN TERMINALS, OTHERWISE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE NE/E/SE AT 10 KTS OR LESS ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 90 61 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 62 83 63 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 88 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 83 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 87 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 86 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 89 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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