524
FXUS64 KLZK 250659
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
159 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN WILDFIRE DANGER/DROUGHT CONDS UNTIL MAYBE
MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN MID/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ALOFT, A RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE REGION BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS
LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND JUST OFF THE MID-ALTANTIC COAST,
RESPECTIVELY. NEAR THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES. CLOCKWISE FLOW OUT AWAY FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE E/NE WINDS TO THE STATE KEEPING T'S NEAR
AVERAGE AND DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, TEMPS WILL MODIFY BUT DEW PTS WILL BE SLOW TO
REBOUND. PREDAWN TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THIS
MORNING. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A
NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF FRIDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO FLATTEN OUT
AND RETROGRADE INTO WRN TX/NM INTRODUCING NW FLOW ACROSS THE THE
STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, NOW MUCH WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED
24 HOURS AGO, SHOULD PASS THROUGH THIS FLOW TRIGGERING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER W AND NW AR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS OPTIMISTIC
WITH MANY PLACES EXPECTED TO SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS, QPF SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
BY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE E. DURING THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL BECOME S/SWRLY, ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION.
MID-TO-LATE WEEK STILL FEATURES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THERE IS STILL QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION (TROUGH VS CLOSED LOW)
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL MORE BULLISH WITH THE ORIENTATION AND
SWRD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WHEN COMPARED TO ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE BEST MID-TO-LATE WEEK, POPS ARE
NOW SLIGHTLY LOWER (30-60% RANGE) WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
HIGHER TOTALS FOCUSED OVER THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. COMPARING THE
MODEL DATA NOW TO THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY, POP TIMING HAS BEEN
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12-36 HOURS. GIVEN THIS, TIMING CARRIES THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH COULD BE PUSHED BACK
EVEN FURTHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW DIFFICULT THE
RIDGE IS TO REMOVE FROM THE REGION. DELAYING APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION OR REDUCING POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY
SERVE TO WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT
DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WHICH IN TURN INCREASES DAILY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN TERMINALS, OTHERWISE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE NE/E/SE AT 10 KTS OR LESS ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 60 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 88 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 61 82 62 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 81 60 83 61 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 83 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 87 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page