861
FXUS64 KLZK 261711
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1211 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN WILDFIRE DANGER/DROUGHT CONDS UNTIL MAYBE
MID/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WEST AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN MID/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- LONG RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS LESS RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, EAST AND, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
ALOFT, A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
TWO TROUGHS LOCATED NEAR THE SRN ROCKIES AND JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, RESPECTIVELY. NEAR THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOCKWISE FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE E AND NE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE
KEEPING T'S NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DEW PTS
HOLDING MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
TEMPS WILL MODIFY BUT DEW PTS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND.
PREDAWN TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY HOLDING IN THE 60S. PASSING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT
OF TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER W AND NW AR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN SUBTLE WEAKENING ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK OPTIMISTIC WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. WHERE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR, QPF SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
BY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE E. DURING THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE S/SE, ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MID-TO-LATE WEEK STILL FEATURES AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION (TROUGH
VS CLOSED LOW) AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY.
DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL MORE BULLISH WITH THE
ORIENTATION AND SWRD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WHEN COMPARED
TO ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE BEST MID-TO-LATE
WEEK, POPS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY LOWER (30-60% RANGE) WITH GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF HIGHER QPF TOTALS FOCUSED OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE.
ANALYZING THE FULL SUITE OF MODEL ENSEMBLES FOR FORECASTED QPF VS
LOCATION OF H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AND THERE HAS
BEEN A CONSISTENT BUT SUBTLE SIGNAL DEPICTING THE FOOTPRINT OF
GREATEST QPF SHIFTING W AND NW ALONGSIDE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS. WHAT
THIS WOULD MEAN FOR AR IS MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, EVEN JUST FROM TWO TO THREE DAYS AGO OVER CNTRL, E, AND
SE AR. IF THIS TREND HOLDS, ONLY PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW AR WOULD
RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THAT DOES NOT MEAN RAIN WOULD NOT
FALL IN OTHER LOCATIONS, BUT THAT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. THE SHIFT OF QPF TO THE W AND NW IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE RELUCTANT NATURE OF THE RIDGE TO MOVE EWRD IN A TIMELY
MANNER. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY DECIPHER WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED JUST N AND W OF AR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
PRODOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
STATE. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEST WINDS AT KHRO AND KBPK WITH
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT KLIT, KPBF, AND KLLQ. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
NORTHERN TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 82 59 83 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 61 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 61 83 61 83 / 30 50 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 89 63 87 / 0 10 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 87 63 87 / 0 0 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 63 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 90 61 87 / 0 10 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 81 60 83 / 20 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 86 63 85 / 10 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 60 85 60 86 / 0 10 20 0
STUTTGART AR 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76
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