896
FXUS64 KLZK 262000
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN WILDFIRE DANGER/DROUGHT CONDS UNTIL MAYBE
MID/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WEST AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN MID/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- LONG RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS LESS RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, EAST AND, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z DATA SHOWS A DEEP CUT OFF LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS KANSAS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
STATE. BY THE AFTERNOON, SHORT TERM MODELS AND CAMS SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, SIMILAR
WEATHER WILL BE OBSERVED WITH TEMPERATURES TO TODAY AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND EXPAND EASTWARD
AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING AND
DEEPENING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE US WEST COAST. THIS
WILL PROMOTE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD
INT THE STATE.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH
THE CUT OFF LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNER REGION AROUND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS
BY MID WEEK, THEN EAST OF THE STATE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE THEN
SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AROUND THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE CUT OFF LOW DISSIPATING AS
TROUGH EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A FRONT JUST WEST OF THE STATE INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. A CONSISTENT AND SUBTLE
SIGNAL WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE AXIS OF
GREATEST QPF MAINLY REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE ALONG THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST PERHIPERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CORRECT, THIS WOULD
MEAN BRING LESS RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
WITH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE MOST LIKELY TO
POTENTIALLY SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION
TO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE AXIS OF HIGHER QPF REMAINING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUES A DOWNWARD TREND IN POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE
SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE BRINGING
TEMPERATURE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
STATE. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT KHRO AND KBPK
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT KLIT, KPBF, AND KLLQ. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
NORTHERN TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 82 59 83 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 61 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 61 83 61 83 / 30 50 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 89 63 87 / 0 10 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 87 63 87 / 0 0 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 63 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 90 61 87 / 0 10 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 81 60 83 / 20 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 86 63 85 / 10 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 60 85 60 86 / 0 10 20 0
STUTTGART AR 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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