172
FXUS64 KLZK 271722
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES SUN-MON, MAINLY ACROSS NW AR
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME
- RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
MAIN FEATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING H500 LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS ARKANSAS IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW. THROUGH THE DAY
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE STATE AND
WILL HELP TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS NW AR
BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WHILE DRIFTING SE.
THROUGH MID-WEEK THE H500 RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER 90S F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
FROM THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME A MID-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE
MAKING PROGRESS EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM. AS THE H500 LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVANCES EAST AHEAD OF
IT, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
WITH PERSISTENT H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE SE US AHEAD OF THE SW US
LOW, IT REMAINS A STRUGGLE TO ASSESS WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
FALL OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. BUT,
VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL PORTRAY SOME
POSITIVE SOLUTIONS THAT WOULD PROVIDE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
STATEWIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CONFIDENCE HOPEFULLY INCREASES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST/WEST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST,
EAST, CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A DECREASE
OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 82 56 88 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 63 89 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 60 82 60 87 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 86 62 91 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 86 62 90 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 63 88 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 86 61 90 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 82 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 61 81 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 87 59 91 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 84 62 89 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 60 85 57 90 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 61 87 59 90 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...76
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