995
FXUS64 KLZK 280628
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
128 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXPECTATIONS REMAIN HIGH FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
MAIN FEATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE
H500 CYCLONES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTS, H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND
HURRICANE POLO OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOCALLY, MID-LEVEL NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY WHICH WILL ASSIST IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
FROM TUE TO WED, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BE POSITIONED FROM SOUTH TEXAS TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC, RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL
PROVIDE A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. AS THE HEAT PEAKS ON
WEDNESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS FORECAST ELEMENTS BEGINS
TO DECREASE. THE WESTERN US H500 CYCLONE WILL BE TRYING TO MAKE
ITS WAY EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO
WILL BE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES
OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
FROM THU TO FRI MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND WILL BECOME A MAJOR ROADBLOCK FOR THE SW CYCLONE.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE H500 LOW OPENING AND LIFTING MORE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHERE ENHANCED
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN
WILL DICTATE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL
AS HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. AT THIS POINT, A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF
PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO, OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH REMAIN OPTIMISTIC IN APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL ACROSS ARKANSAS. BOTH OUTPUTS INDICATE A GREATER THAN
70% CHANCE OF MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROBS
OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS GREATER THAN 40% BETWEEN
BOTH MODELS, WITH THE GEFS OUTPUT BEING HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF.
WHAT IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH MODELS IS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
THE ONGOING HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER AND SHORT/LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS IN PLACE, HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL LINE UP FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH E/NE WINDS
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND NO IMPACTS TO AREA
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 55 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 89 60 92 65 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 81 57 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 60 89 65 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 60 88 65 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 88 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 85 58 88 64 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 55 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 80 57 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 60 87 64 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 82 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 85 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67
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