171
FXUS64 KLZK 282345
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXPECTATIONS REMAIN HIGH FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
MAIN FEATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE
H500 CYCLONES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTS, H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND
HURRICANE POLO OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOCALLY, MID-LEVEL NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY WHICH WILL ASSIST IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
FROM TUE TO WED, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BE POSITIONED FROM SOUTH TEXAS TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC, RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL
PROVIDE A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. AS THE HEAT PEAKS ON
WEDNESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS FORECAST ELEMENTS BEGINS
TO DECREASE. THE WESTERN US H500 CYCLONE WILL BE TRYING TO MAKE
ITS WAY EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO
WILL BE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES
OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
FROM THU TO FRI MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND WILL BECOME A MAJOR ROADBLOCK FOR THE SW CYCLONE.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE H500 LOW OPENING AND LIFTING MORE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHERE ENHANCED
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN
WILL DICTATE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL
AS HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. AT THIS POINT, A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF
PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO, OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH REMAIN OPTIMISTIC IN APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL ACROSS ARKANSAS. BOTH OUTPUTS INDICATE A GREATER THAN
70% CHANCE OF MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROBS
OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS GREATER THAN 40% BETWEEN
BOTH MODELS, WITH THE GEFS OUTPUT BEING HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF.
WHAT IS AGREED UPON BY BOTH MODELS IS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
THE ONGOING HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER AND SHORT/LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS IN PLACE, HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL LINE UP FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 55 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 91 60 93 65 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 82 58 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 60 90 66 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 60 90 66 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 87 61 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 83 58 90 64 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 56 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 82 56 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 58 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 60 88 65 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 85 57 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 87 59 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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