963
FXUS64 KLZK 291107 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY
- INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AR WITH AMOUNTS DIMINISHING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AND SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW OVER THE STATE.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE BASICALLY NO
RAIN CHANCES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN WED-THU WITH READINGS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW MOVING H500
LOW OVER THE SW US EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
RESISTANCE FROM RIDGING ACROSS THE SE US.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD A
MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. BY LATER THIS WEEK THE
H500 LOW WILL LOSE INTENSITY, OPEN AND BE ABSORBED BY NORTHERN
STREAM ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR ARKANSAS AND NEARBY AREAS IS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT, WHILE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE, RECENT DATA IS BEGINNING TO ALIGN
ON A LOWER QPF EVENT FOR THE NATURAL STATE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING LESS UNIFORM TOWARD THE
MS RIVER.
WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WOULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD IMPROVING
THE STATE'S CURRENT HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE
SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC WINDS FROM
THE E/SE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 62 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 93 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 88 66 89 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 66 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 67 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 92 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 65 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 63 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 88 64 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 91 65 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 65 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 91 64 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 92 66 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67
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