369
FXUS64 KLZK 291721
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY
- INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AR WITH AMOUNTS DIMINISHING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AND SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW OVER THE STATE.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE BASICALLY NO
RAIN CHANCES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN WED-THU WITH READINGS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW MOVING H500
LOW OVER THE SW US EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
RESISTANCE FROM RIDGING ACROSS THE SE US.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD A
MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. BY LATER THIS WEEK THE
H500 LOW WILL LOSE INTENSITY, OPEN AND BE ABSORBED BY NORTHERN
STREAM ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR ARKANSAS AND NEARBY AREAS IS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT, WHILE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE, RECENT DATA IS BEGINNING TO ALIGN
ON A LOWER QPF EVENT FOR THE NATURAL STATE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
PRECIP AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING LESS UNIFORM TOWARD THE
MS RIVER.
WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WOULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD IMPROVING
THE STATE'S CURRENT HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE
SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 67 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 68 89 71 86 / 0 10 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 68 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 66 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 91 71 88 / 0 10 0 40
NEWPORT AR 66 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 67 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 92 72 90 / 0 0 0 40
SEARCY AR 65 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 68 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...76
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