116
FXUS64 KLZK 301135 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES LIKELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ALREADY SEEING CHANGES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE STATE AS SRLY FLOW
RETURNS, BOTH T AND TD VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH TD VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S F
AREAWIDE BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVERHEAD, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20
MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
ARKANSAS.
AFTER TODAY, THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
SLOW MOVING H500 LOW OVER THE SW US INTERACTING WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE
FROM RIDGING ACROSS THE SE US.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD A
MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA, TEXAS AND NEARBY AREAS. BY LATER THIS WEEK THE H500 LOW
WILL LOSE INTENSITY, OPEN AND BE ABSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM
ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW.
FOR ARKANSAS AND NEARBY AREAS THIS MEANS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS INDICATED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WAS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE STATE, RECENT DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOWER QPF
EVENT FOR THE NATURAL STATE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MORE THAN 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING LESS UNIFORM TOWARD THE MS RIVER.
WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WOULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD IMPROVING
THE STATE'S CURRENT HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE
SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A CONTINUED STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SRLY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 92 72 91 69 / 0 0 20 60
CAMDEN AR 95 70 92 69 / 0 0 10 40
HARRISON AR 89 71 84 66 / 0 10 40 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 93 72 90 68 / 0 0 20 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 94 73 92 71 / 0 0 10 40
MONTICELLO AR 94 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 30
MOUNT IDA AR 92 70 88 66 / 0 0 30 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 91 71 87 66 / 0 0 30 70
NEWPORT AR 94 72 92 70 / 0 0 10 50
PINE BLUFF AR 94 70 92 69 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 71 88 68 / 0 0 30 70
SEARCY AR 95 70 93 69 / 0 0 10 50
STUTTGART AR 95 72 93 72 / 0 0 0 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67
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