745
FXUS64 KLZK 150601
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ON
THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A DECAYING QLCS MOVING ENE ACRS ERN OK,
AND WL LKLY BE APPROACHING NWRN AR NEAR 12Z THURS MRNG. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR THRU THE
DAY THURS.
THURS THRU FRI, A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORTWAVE TROF WL QUICKLY DIG
SWRD INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, W/ AN ASCTD SFC
PRESSURE DIPOLE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS, W/ STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC
SFC FLOW MOVING NEWRD THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND A STRONG
TRAILING CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SWRD THRU
THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON THIS CDFRNT REMAINS
CONSISTENT, W/ THE FRNT MOVING INTO NWRN AR THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD
THURS NIGHT, AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE STATE FRI MRNG TO EARLY
AFTN.
LOW CHANCE POPS WL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRNT
INITIALLY OVER NWRN AR THRU THURS NIGHT, BUT WL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THRU THE DAY FRI AS THE CDFRNT PUSHES THROUGH, USHERING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP EXPECTED ACRS SRN TO SERN AR, THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN AR FRI AFTN AS THIS FRNT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FCST, ALONGSIDE
MIN AFTN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT, AND ERC VALUES BETWEEN
THE 75TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE.
CONCERNING WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES, MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S,
AND ISOLATED UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN AR SAT
AND PARTICULARLY SUN MRNGS, W/ LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SOME ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE UPPER 30S ACRS NRN AR
ON SUN MRNG. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWRD, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW RESUMING, AND AREA
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT SFC OBS ACRS NRN AR INDICATED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISBYS.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES, W/ NRN TERMINAL
CONDNS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15/10Z, AND VFR LEVELS BY LATE
THURS MRNG. SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS WRN TO NWRN
AR THRU EARLY THURS MRNG. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDNS ARE FCST, W/ OCSNL
MID LVL CLOUD COVG. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WL BECOME SWRLY, W/
SOME GUSTY CONDNS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE PD... AFTER 00Z THURS
NIGHT... A STRONG CDFRNT WL BEGIN TO MOVE THRU THE FA, W/ STRONG
NWRLY WINDS ENSUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 56 66 44 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 93 61 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 87 48 60 41 / 40 80 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 58 69 45 / 0 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 62 70 46 / 0 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 92 64 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 90 51 67 42 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 51 61 43 / 30 70 0 0
NEWPORT AR 92 60 68 46 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 93 61 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 55 67 44 / 10 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 92 59 69 44 / 0 0 10 0
STUTTGART AR 94 63 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...72
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page