069
FXUS64 KLZK 151803
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ON
THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A DECAYING QLCS MOVING ENE ACRS ERN OK,
AND WL LKLY BE APPROACHING NWRN AR NEAR 12Z THURS MRNG. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR THRU THE
DAY THURS.
THURS THRU FRI, A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORTWAVE TROF WL QUICKLY DIG
SWRD INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, W/ AN ASCTD SFC
PRESSURE DIPOLE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS, W/ STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC
SFC FLOW MOVING NEWRD THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND A STRONG
TRAILING CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SWRD THRU
THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON THIS CDFRNT REMAINS
CONSISTENT, W/ THE FRNT MOVING INTO NWRN AR THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD
THURS NIGHT, AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE STATE FRI MRNG TO EARLY
AFTN.
LOW CHANCE POPS WL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRNT
INITIALLY OVER NWRN AR THRU THURS NIGHT, BUT WL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THRU THE DAY FRI AS THE CDFRNT PUSHES THROUGH, USHERING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP EXPECTED ACRS SRN TO SERN AR, THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN AR FRI AFTN AS THIS FRNT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FCST, ALONGSIDE
MIN AFTN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT, AND ERC VALUES BETWEEN
THE 75TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE.
CONCERNING WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES, MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S,
AND ISOLATED UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN AR SAT
AND PARTICULARLY SUN MRNGS, W/ LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SOME ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE UPPER 30S ACRS NRN AR
ON SUN MRNG. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWRD, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW RESUMING, AND AREA
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR (OR LOWER) CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 20-30 KTS
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING, STRONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 53 65 44 64 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 58 70 45 68 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 46 58 40 61 / 70 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 67 44 67 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 67 46 66 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 61 70 47 67 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 65 41 66 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 60 41 62 / 70 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 56 66 45 64 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 57 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 66 43 66 / 40 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 55 67 44 65 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 68 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...77
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