015
FXUS64 KLZK 152220 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
520 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
-ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
-ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A DECAYING QLCS MOVING ENE ACRS ERN OK,
AND WL LKLY BE APPROACHING NWRN AR NEAR 12Z THURS MRNG. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR THRU THE
DAY THURS.
THURS THRU FRI, A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORTWAVE TROF WL QUICKLY DIG
SWRD INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, W/ AN ASCTD SFC
PRESSURE DIPOLE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS, W/ STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC
SFC FLOW MOVING NEWRD THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND A STRONG
TRAILING CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SWRD THRU
THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON THIS CDFRNT REMAINS
CONSISTENT, W/ THE FRNT MOVING INTO NWRN AR THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD
THURS NIGHT, AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE STATE FRI MRNG TO EARLY
AFTN.
LOW CHANCE POPS WL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRNT
INITIALLY OVER NWRN AR THRU THURS NIGHT, BUT WL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THRU THE DAY FRI AS THE CDFRNT PUSHES THROUGH, USHERING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP EXPECTED ACRS SRN TO SERN AR, THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN AR FRI AFTN AS THIS FRNT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FCST, ALONGSIDE
MIN AFTN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT, AND ERC VALUES BETWEEN
THE 75TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE.
CONCERNING WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES, MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S,
AND ISOLATED UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN AR SAT
AND PARTICULARLY SUN MRNGS, W/ LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SOME ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE UPPER 30S ACRS NRN AR
ON SUN MRNG. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWRD, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW RESUMING, AND AREA
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN/WRN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. WHILE DOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN...SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS PRECIP/FROPA...MAINLY ACROSS NRN TERMINALS.
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT MAINLY THE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS ON FRI. SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
NW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 52 64 44 63 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 58 70 45 68 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 45 57 40 61 / 70 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 67 44 66 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 66 46 66 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 62 69 48 67 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 47 65 41 66 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 48 59 41 62 / 70 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 55 65 45 64 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 57 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 65 43 66 / 40 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 54 66 44 64 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ065>069.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...62
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