701
FXUS64 KLZK 160534
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
-ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
-ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A DECAYING QLCS MOVING ENE ACRS ERN OK,
AND WL LKLY BE APPROACHING NWRN AR NEAR 12Z THURS MRNG. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR THRU THE
DAY THURS.
THURS THRU FRI, A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORTWAVE TROF WL QUICKLY DIG
SWRD INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, W/ AN ASCTD SFC
PRESSURE DIPOLE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS, W/ STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC
SFC FLOW MOVING NEWRD THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND A STRONG
TRAILING CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SWRD THRU
THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON THIS CDFRNT REMAINS
CONSISTENT, W/ THE FRNT MOVING INTO NWRN AR THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD
THURS NIGHT, AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE STATE FRI MRNG TO EARLY
AFTN.
LOW CHANCE POPS WL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRNT
INITIALLY OVER NWRN AR THRU THURS NIGHT, BUT WL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THRU THE DAY FRI AS THE CDFRNT PUSHES THROUGH, USHERING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP EXPECTED ACRS SRN TO SERN AR, THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN AR FRI AFTN AS THIS FRNT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FCST, ALONGSIDE
MIN AFTN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT, AND ERC VALUES BETWEEN
THE 75TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE.
CONCERNING WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES, MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S,
AND ISOLATED UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN AR SAT
AND PARTICULARLY SUN MRNGS, W/ LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SOME ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE UPPER 30S ACRS NRN AR
ON SUN MRNG. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWRD, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW RESUMING, AND AREA
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFTING TO VFR CIGS AROUND
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON,
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH EXIT THE
STATE AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 71 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ065>069.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...76
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