152
FXUS64 KLZK 160620
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
120 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
-ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
-ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAIN DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. BY THIS EVENING, THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE.
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STATE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH THAT IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY, WILL
MOVE TO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS REGION ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINAS REGION BY SUNDAY WITH BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE TROUGH DEEPENING BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FILTERING INTO THE STATE WILL LEAD
TO MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND, LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
PATCHY FROST IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE STATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
US COAST AS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD ARKANSAS
WITH WINDS VEER FROM NORTH/NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFTING TO VFR CIGS AROUND
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON,
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH EXIT THE
STATE AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 71 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ065>069.
DISCUSSION..76
AVIATION...76
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