452
FXUS64 KLZK 161747
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION & KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
-RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER WILL EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAIN DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. BY THIS EVENING, THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE.
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STATE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH THAT IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY, WILL
MOVE TO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS REGION ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINAS REGION BY SUNDAY WITH BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE TROUGH DEEPENING BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FILTERING INTO THE STATE WILL LEAD
TO MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND, LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
PATCHY FROST IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE STATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
US COAST AS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD ARKANSAS
WITH WINDS VEER FROM NORTH/NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
DIMINISH AFTERWARDS PRIOR TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 44 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 44 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 39 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 44 67 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 41 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 45 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 67 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 68 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 44 66 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ065>069.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...77
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