960
FXUS64 KLZK 162216 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
516 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 513 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING
-WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAIN DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. BY THIS EVENING, THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE.
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STATE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH THAT IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY, WILL
MOVE TO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS REGION ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINAS REGION BY SUNDAY WITH BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE TROUGH DEEPENING BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FILTERING INTO THE STATE WILL LEAD
TO MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND, LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
PATCHY FROST IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE STATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
US COAST AS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD ARKANSAS
WITH WINDS VEER FROM NORTH/NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE BREEZY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING FOR MOST
SITES. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING VFR
CONDTIONS DOMINANT. WINDS MAY GUST AGAIN ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH
THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OVER SERN SECTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 45 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 39 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 45 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 42 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 45 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 45 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 67 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ065>069.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...62
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