259
FXUS64 KLZK 190600
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
-WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S STATEWIDE. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
40S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR MAP ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUT OFF LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WASHINGTON COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. AN ANALYSIS
OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SHOWS THE CUT OFF
LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK OFF THE US WEST COAST BEFORE COMING ASHORE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
EAST OF MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE OF CANADA BY TUESDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEST OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE STATE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL COME ASHORE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON FRIDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE PERHIPERHY OF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY.THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITHIN THE STATE WITH
A PLACE OR TWO IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE LOWER
80S. AS WE HEAD INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 80 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 75 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 77 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 79 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 46 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 79 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 77 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 79 46 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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