151
FXUS64 KLZK 191710
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
-WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S STATEWIDE. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
40S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR MAP ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUT OFF LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WASHINGTON COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. AN ANALYSIS
OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SHOWS THE CUT OFF
LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK OFF THE US WEST COAST BEFORE COMING ASHORE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
EAST OF MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE OF CANADA BY TUESDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEST OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE STATE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL COME ASHORE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON FRIDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY.THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITHIN THE STATE WITH
A PLACE OR TWO IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE LOWER
80S. AS WE HEAD INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES BEFORE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED LATER TUESDAY
MORNING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 46 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 47 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 46 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 45 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 47 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 46 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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