225
FXUS64 KLZK 200622
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
122 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
-WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING.
AN ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWS THAT THE NATURAL STATE REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ELSEWHERE,AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS NOTED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A
CLOSED LOW, WHILE A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WAS DIGGING AND
STRENGTHEN OFF THE US WEST COAST THIS EVENING.
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD AND OVER THIS STATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS
SOME VARIATIONS IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL COME ASHORE
ALONG THE US WEST COAST SOMETIME WITHIN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THURSDAY AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THAT TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH IT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE, BUT THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AN EASTWARD COMPONENT BUT VARIABLE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 79 46 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 73 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 77 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 79 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 77 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 79 50 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...76
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