481
FXUS64 KLZK 201552
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1052 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
-WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING.
AN ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWS THAT THE NATURAL STATE REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ELSEWHERE,AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS NOTED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A
CLOSED LOW, WHILE A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WAS DIGGING AND
STRENGTHEN OFF THE US WEST COAST THIS EVENING.
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD AND OVER THIS STATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS
SOME VARIATIONS IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL COME ASHORE
ALONG THE US WEST COAST SOMETIME WITHIN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THURSDAY AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THAT TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH IT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE, BUT THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OUT
OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 46 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 47 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 47 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 47 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 48 80 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 48 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...77
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