544
FXUS64 KLZK 210607
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
-NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
-LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRYING FUELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
RECENT WV SAT IMGRY DEPICTED PERTURBED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS, W/ AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING SRN CA AND THE BAJA REGION, AND
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MANEUVERING OVER THE NERN US. INTERMEDIATE RIDGING
RESIDED OVER THE CNTRL US, W/ BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SEWRD FM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH.
THRU MUCH OF THE CURRENT FCST PD, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT
AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WL DRIVE A
PERSISTENCE-STYLE FCST, W/ DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S...TYPICALLY ABOVE-NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, W/ NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.
CONCERNING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER, A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL, AND
ANY RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WL FOSTER DRYING GROUND FUELS (NOTED
BY FCST ERC VALUES APPROACHING >90TH PERCENTILE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN
AR), AND PERSISTING TO DETERIORATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY, VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 25 PERCENT
OR LESS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE LONG TERM, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF LOOKS TO SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EWRD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. LOCALLY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WL ALSO SHIFT EWRD, POSITIONING SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE SRN GREAT
PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY DRIVING SOME POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, W/ MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS ZONAL H500 NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PD AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDNS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PD, W/ OVERNIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING ERLY TO NERLY AT MOST TERMINALS, AND
MINIMAL HIGH CLOUD COVG THROUGH THE DAY WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 78 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 81 45 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 76 49 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 48 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 81 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 80 44 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 79 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 79 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 81 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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