051
FXUS64 KLZK 211122 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
-NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
-LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRYING FUELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
RECENT WV SAT IMGRY DEPICTED PERTURBED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS, W/ AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING SRN CA AND THE BAJA REGION, AND
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MANEUVERING OVER THE NERN US. INTERMEDIATE RIDGING
RESIDED OVER THE CNTRL US, W/ BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SEWRD FM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH.
THRU MUCH OF THE CURRENT FCST PD, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT
AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WL DRIVE A
PERSISTENCE-STYLE FCST, W/ DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S...TYPICALLY ABOVE-NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, W/ NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.
CONCERNING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER, A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL, AND
ANY RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WL FOSTER DRYING GROUND FUELS (NOTED
BY FCST ERC VALUES APPROACHING >90TH PERCENTILE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN
AR), AND PERSISTING TO DETERIORATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY, VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 25 PERCENT
OR LESS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE LONG TERM, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF LOOKS TO SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EWRD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. LOCALLY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WL ALSO SHIFT EWRD, POSITIONING SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE SRN GREAT
PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY DRIVING SOME POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, W/ MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS ZONAL H500 NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PD AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDNS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEW TAF PD, W/ VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING ERLY TO NERLY AT MOST TERMINALS, AND MINIMAL HIGH
CLOUD COVG THROUGH THE DAY WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 78 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 81 45 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 76 50 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 80 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 81 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 47 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 79 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 80 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 79 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 81 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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