833
FXUS64 KMAF 151708
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1108 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST (>
80%) CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH OVER THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY, MUCH
COLDER BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND INCREASE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
IN THE SHORT TERM.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE LAST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR 70F FOR MANY. A SYSTEM APPROACHES THAT AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NEARLY AREAWIDE.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (>80%) WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 ACROSS SE NM
AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. CURRENT FORECASTED AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
NEAR ZERO FOR AREAS AROUND THE BIG BEND TO OVER AN INCH OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
WHERE THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY SEES WINDS PICK UP AREAWIDE AND WIND HAZARDS WILL BE ISSUED,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, IN COMING UPDATES. WINDS
DECREASE LATE MONDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. AS THE FORECAST STANDS, MANY AREAS LOOK TO
SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS KMAF AND KFST AND WILL STAY
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 79 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 77 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 86 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 74 51 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 76 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 77 55 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 51 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29
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