375
FXUS64 KMAF 152035
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST (>
70%) CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN.
- WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE GUADALUPES AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WIND PRODUCTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW LOWS APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO BE COMMONPLACE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. BREEZY AND WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
HIGHS TOMORROW LIKEWISE ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S AS THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
BE RATHER SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, BUT A PATTERN CHANGE IS NOT FAR
BEHIND...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S (NEAR NORMAL), AND
ALSO BRINGS THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND STORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
(70-90%) ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT, THOUGH THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF MIDLAND HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE (>50%) OF SEEING MORE THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN, UP TO
AS MUCH AS 1 INCH IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. A LOW-END RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER ALSO EXISTS FOR THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALONG-FRONT LINE OF
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE GUADALUPES,
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL IN AREAS ABOVE 6,000 FEET, THOUGH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, STRONG
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, HIGH
WIND WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE GUADALUPES AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
(WHERE WINDS ARE TO BE THE STRONGEST), ALONG WITH WIND ADVISORIES
FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS, BLOWING
DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR PLACES SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER. BY
MONDAY EVENING, THE HIGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE AT LEAST A 40-50% CHANCE
OF SEEING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY THOSE PLACES IN THE MOUNTAINS OR THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL (MID-TO-UPPER 60S) BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS KMAF AND KFST AND WILL STAY
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 54 79 57 68 / 0 0 0 60
CARLSBAD 45 80 49 67 / 0 0 0 70
DRYDEN 54 79 60 72 / 0 0 0 40
FORT STOCKTON 55 87 56 72 / 0 0 0 50
GUADALUPE PASS 51 71 49 61 / 0 0 10 70
HOBBS 50 78 51 64 / 0 0 0 70
MARFA 46 79 48 69 / 0 0 10 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 54 80 58 68 / 0 0 0 60
ODESSA 55 80 59 69 / 0 0 0 60
WINK 51 83 54 69 / 0 0 0 60
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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