168
FXUS64 KMAF 161135
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST (>
70%) CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, CHINATI, AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. IT WON'T FEEL
MUCH LIKE FALL. THIS WILL CHANGE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A DEEP
CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR BEING INSTABILITY. INCREASING CLOUDS LIMIT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT QPF AND RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS
THE GENERAL LOCATION WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DIMINISHING
FARTHER SOUTH. CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CELL TRAINING MEAN SOME AREAS
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WHILE OTHERS GET LEFT DRY SO
UNFORTUNATELY WE CAN'T FOCUS TOO MUCH ON EXACT AMOUNTS. IF THERE ARE
ANY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WITH THIS IN MIND, A
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE, DAVIS, AND
CHINATI MOUNTAINS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE REGION AS WINDS AND WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS WINDS RAMP UP, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TAPERING OFF AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW MAY BE SEEN IN AREAS ABOVE 6,000 FEET IN THE GUADALUPES, BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AFTER SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING DUST WILL REMAIN AS WINDS STAY ELEVATED. HOW IMPACTFUL
BLOWING DUST WILL BE FOR CERTAIN AREAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS SEEN AND WHERE IT FALLS. WINDS DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. WEDNESDAY MORNING SEES MUCH OF THE REGION DIPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S CONFINED TO THE BIG BEND.
TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER(67/42 AT
KMAF) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES END LATE
SUNDAY, THE REST OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS DRY.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 79 57 69 49 / 0 0 60 100
CARLSBAD 80 48 69 46 / 0 0 70 90
DRYDEN 79 59 72 52 / 0 0 40 70
FORT STOCKTON 87 56 74 48 / 0 0 60 80
GUADALUPE PASS 71 49 62 41 / 0 0 60 80
HOBBS 78 51 68 44 / 0 0 70 100
MARFA 79 48 70 39 / 0 0 70 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 80 58 69 48 / 0 0 60 100
ODESSA 81 59 69 48 / 0 0 60 100
WINK 84 54 72 47 / 0 0 70 90
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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