827
FXUS64 KMAF 170519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH HIGH (> 70%)
CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- THERE IS A LOW (< 30%) CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
EITHER.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, CHINATI, AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THIS AFTERNOON MARKS THE QUIET BEFORE OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD
DEPARTURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING
OUT WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS OUR NEXT
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT, LEE TROUGHING
BEGINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
MOIST RETURN FLOW LIMITS COOLING OVERNIGHT FOR ALL. MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINS WELL INTO THE 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AS OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD, INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
INITIALLY, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS STUNT DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE
DESTABILIZATION AS MANY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
THIS LACK OF DESTABILIZATION MAY BE BENEFICIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE MAXIMUM LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINES WITH TIME. THIS MAY POSE A SEVERE RISK ALONG THE
LINE, ESPECIALLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THAT SAID,
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT DOES NOT RULE
OUT A VERY LOW-END LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. THANKFULLY,
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. WITH THE BEST OVERLAP FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES FOR THIS AREA.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, A QUICK TRANSITION TO DRYING AND WINDY CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S FOR MANY BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG WEST WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UNDER THE WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES, BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS
WITH ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES IS LIKELY IN LATER FORECAST
PACKAGES.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST, STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE,
DELAWARE, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING, THANKS TO A LOW-LEVEL
JET MAX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THIS, HIGH WIND
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
EVENING, BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
BE LIKELY IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE OTHER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
MEDIUM (40-50%) CONFIDENCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS START TO CALM DOWN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
A BRIEF COOLING TREND OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT, THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND SETS IN THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS SHALL PROVIDE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LATE
NEXT WEEK.
-LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MAF 12-18Z. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH TS POSSIBLE NEAR 00Z. WILL WAIT TO INCLUDE
TS IN ANY TAFS FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE WHEN IT MAY BE INCLUDED IN A
PROB30 GROUP IN THE EASTERNMOST TAFS.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 58 68 50 68 / 20 70 100 10
CARLSBAD 49 67 47 65 / 0 70 90 10
DRYDEN 60 71 52 74 / 0 50 80 0
FORT STOCKTON 56 71 48 68 / 0 70 90 0
GUADALUPE PASS 49 62 40 55 / 0 70 80 0
HOBBS 51 66 45 63 / 10 70 100 20
MARFA 49 66 40 59 / 0 70 80 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 68 48 66 / 10 70 100 0
ODESSA 60 68 49 66 / 10 70 100 0
WINK 55 68 48 68 / 10 70 90 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10
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