044
FXUS64 KMAF 170856
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 252 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH HIGH (> 70%)
CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- THERE IS A LOW (< 30%) CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
EITHER.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, CHINATI, AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE BAJA OF
MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY MOVE EAST TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR CWA. COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SBCAPE TO LESS THAN 1000J/KG, AND COMBINED
WITH VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL MAKE SEVERE CONVECTION DIFFICULT AS
STORMS GET SHEARED APART BEFORE ACHIEVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS COMPLETELY BUT THE THREAT APPEARS
ISOLATED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND OUR PART OF WEST TEXAS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CELL TRAINING ADDING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT WE
HAVE BEEN VERY DRY RECENTLY AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED SO WE ARE NOT GOING TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER
ANYONE IN FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT. THE RAINFALL ENDS
MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW.
RAIN ENDS WITH THE LOW ARRIVING, BUT WINDS WILL JUST BE GETTING
STARTED ON MONDAY AS THE MOUNTAINS SEE STRONG WINDS BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. RAIN AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW KEEPS TEMPS
COOL MONDAY DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
AND WINDS TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS DECREASE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD. LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE SEEN FOR MOST WITH UPPER
20S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW, MIDLAND/ODESSA STAY
JUST ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING OCCURS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MOST AREAS ENDING UP IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MAF 12-18Z. SHRA WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH TS POSSIBLE NEAR 00Z. WILL WAIT TO INCLUDE
TS IN ANY TAFS FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE WHEN IT MAY BE INCLUDED IN A
PROB30 GROUP IN THE EASTERNMOST TAFS.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 49 68 41 / 60 90 0 0
CARLSBAD 68 47 64 39 / 60 80 10 0
DRYDEN 72 51 74 47 / 50 80 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 47 68 44 / 60 90 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 39 54 39 / 60 80 0 0
HOBBS 67 44 63 38 / 60 100 20 0
MARFA 67 38 59 38 / 60 90 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 47 66 42 / 60 90 0 0
ODESSA 69 48 65 43 / 60 100 0 0
WINK 71 47 67 39 / 60 100 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ MONDAY NIGHT FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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