587
FXUS64 KMAF 182022
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, CHINATI, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA.
- THERE IS GOOD (60-80 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AFTER A WINDY DAY MONDAY, THINGS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN
CONSIDERABLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. MORNING
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S AS WINDS REMAIN
A BIT ELEVATED. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE LOWER
60S TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DRY AIR MAY KEEP THINGS FROM FROSTING UP
AND TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
BELOW FREEZING? AREAS WITH GOOD DRAINAGE COULD SEE LOWS CRATER
INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE AREAS INSIDE URBAN AREAS WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL WITHHOLD ISSUANCE OF A
FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE OTHER HIGHLIGHTS WE HAVE
GOING ON NOW, AND THEREFORE WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO
OUTLINE THE BEST AREAS FOR A FREEZE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOUT FIVE OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE
TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO ENTER THE PICTURE THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
19/18Z (AND BEYOND). STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS AIDED BY
TURBULENT MIXING WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH WINDS AT OR
BELOW 11 KNOTS THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 69 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 40 64 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 47 79 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 45 69 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 39 56 37 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 38 62 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 38 64 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 43 67 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 44 67 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 41 68 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-UPTON-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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