973
FXUS64 KMAF 192337
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR LEA
COUNTY, NM AND THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TODAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VIS IR/SAT SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER, BUT A COLD FRONT
IS IN THE PROGRESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE ARE
FORECAST TODAY, ABOVE AVERAGE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, MID TO UPPER 60S MOST OF SE NM PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN
AND UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND 70S FROM STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO RIO GRANDE
BASINS , WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND AND
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTY.
LAST SHIFT, NBM 25TH PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR LOWS. NBM HAS TRENDED
WARMER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SINCE THEN, BUT CLEAR SKIES, CAA, AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THAT ARE WARMER THAN WHAT THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE INDICATES AND
COOLER THAN WHAT THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE INDICATES. WENT WITH 2:1:1
BLEND OF NBM, NBM 25TH PERCENTILE, AND NBM 50TH PERCENTILE DUE TO
EXPECTED CAA ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR SURFACE ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DRAINAGE FLOWS AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
20S AND LOWER 30S SE NM PLAINS, NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND BASINS
OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MID TO UPPER 30S REST OF
AREA NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND LOWER 40S IN RIO GRANDE
BASINS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES OFFSET CONTINUED CAA, BUT WITH HIGHS OVER MUCH OF SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MIDLAND-ODESSA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT, A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
REGIONS, WITH SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL EDDY
COUNTY AND BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY AGAIN GETTING NEAR FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVES
WAY TO UPPER RIDGING ALOFT, ALLOWING THICKNESSES TO RISE
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
FIVE AND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF NOVEMBER. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE SOMETIME DURING THE DAY NEXT MONDAY, BUT
RIGHT NOW, INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY ONE AND
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN TO "JUST" FIVE DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. AND WHILE THERE'S AN LOT OF WEIRDNESS THAT CAN
HAPPEN BEYOND VISUAL RANGE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE THANKSGIVING
WEEK FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSES OUT THROUGH DAY 10 SUGGESTS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HEREABOUTS THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WE SHALL
SEE... -BC
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BREEZY WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRIEFLY PICKING UP TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 35 60 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 32 57 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 44 65 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 37 63 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 36 55 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 31 57 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 33 63 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 36 59 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 36 59 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 33 60 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANDREWS-DAWSON-GAINES.
NM...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...21
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