839
FXUS64 KMAF 201946
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
146 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
- CHILLY TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT NOT AS COLD TONIGHT AS LAST
NIGHT, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VIS/IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PERSIST. HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER TODAY, WITH
50S FOR SE NM PLAINS, MOST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS, LOWER 50S AND 40S IN GUADALUPES AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, LOWER
TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM 70S RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN
SOUTHERNMOST PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN, BUT CAA IS EXPECTED
TO OVERWHELM THE WARMING EFFECT FROM CLEAR SKIES, SOUTHERLY WINDS,
AND INCREASED RIDGING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, WITH MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM LOWER 30S IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
EDDY COUNTY AND BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, AS WELL AS LOWER TO MID
40S IN RIO GRANDE BASINS AND SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE.
TOMORROW, EVEN AS THE NBM HAS TRENDED LOWER IN MOST RECENT RUNS,
WARMING EFFECTS FROM CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY
AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MORE APPARENT, WITH HIGHS
BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, MID TO UPPER 60S OVER SE NM PLAINS AND
MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER 60S IN HIGHEST PEAKS OF GUADALUPES, AND
LOWER TO MID 70S EVERYWHERE ELSE WITH EXCEPTION OF LOWER 80S RIGHT
ALONG THE BIG BEND. TOMORROW NIGHT, LOWS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE NBM HAS TRENDED A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
RECENT RUNS, WITH REGIONS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN EDDY
COUNTY LESS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER 30S REPLACED BY MID 30S FOR ALL OF
THE BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S COVERING MORE
OF THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOWS OFF
THE WA/BC COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL
BE THE PATTERN WE'LL SEE ALOFT, FOLLOWED LATE IN THE PERIOD BY
MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE'LL SEE WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS RUNNING SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE MONDAY, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL, BEFORE WARMING AGAIN TUESDAY.
STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES IN WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING. WITH A LACK OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE, NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, SCANNING OUT BEYOND VISUAL RANGE, A PATTERN
CHANGE MAY INCREASE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED... -BC
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR VIS AND CIGS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY
09Z-15Z THURSDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT, WITH THAT MAINTAINED INTO END
OF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS OVER STOCKTON PLATEAU SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BY 10Z AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY 15Z, REMAINING OUT OF THAT
DIRECTION AND LIGHT INTO END OF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 35 68 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 33 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 41 73 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 39 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 41 63 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 35 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 36 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 38 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 39 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 35 69 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...94
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