076
FXUS64 KMAF 151957
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEDNESDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WE HAD A SURPRISE GUEST IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LOW DEWPOINTS LED TO LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THEN A
SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT WHEN COOLED BY THE CHILLY
GROUND LED TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY, AT TIMES DENSE, FOG. THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA AND SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY.
TONIGHT A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SHIFTING
WINDS FROM A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR
THAT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY,
THOUGH THAT WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TOMORROW NIGHT LOWS DROP
TO A MORE SEASONAL 30S AND 40S.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN DEPICTED IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE DEVELOPS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. TUESDAY, HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE FORECAST,
MID TO UPPER 60S, LOWER TO MID 70S BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INTO
UPPER TRANS PECOS, STOCKTON PLATEAU, TERRELL COUNTY, AND SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE BASINS, LOWER 60S IN GUADALUPES. TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS
12 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE INDICATED IN NBM GRIDS, LOWS
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 30S SE NM PLAINS, NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INTO PEAKS OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
MID TO UPPER 40S EVERYWHERE ELSE ASIDE FROM LOWER 50S IN TERRELL
COUNTY INTO THE BIG BEND. WEDNESDAY, THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA, SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AND
ENSUING CAA DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-DECEMBER.
HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 50S SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN, CULBERSON COUNTY, MARFA PLATEAU AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS, PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF W
TX, AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE APART FROM LOWER 70S IN
PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. THIS SUGGESTS A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
AND THE DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. NBM GRIDS HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK BELOW 10%
EVEN FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AND WE ARE STILL
NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AT THIS TIME. PERSISTING CAA AND CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE
NM PLAINS, NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND MARFA PLATEAU, UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. A LIGHT FREEZE WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED FOR MOST
AREAS NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASINS AND TERRELL COUNTY INTO
STOCKTON PLATEAU, BUT LOWS HAVE TRENDED UP IN LATEST NBM RUNS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE RATHER THAN NEAR AVERAGE.
AS CAA DECREASES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN, AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN MID TO UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CWA LATER
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT
A WARMING TREND. NBM HIGHS AND LOWS THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY
HAVE TRENDED UP A FEW DEGREES, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO A WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED COLD FRONT MID-WEEK AND A MORE RAPID ONSET OF
A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL BE BACK TO
ABOVE AVERAGE, MID TO UPPER 60S, 70S STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERNMOST RIO GRANDE BASINS, NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NBM RUNS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR RIO GRANDE
BASINS, AGAIN DEMONSTRATING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT MID-WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 30S IN USUAL COOLER SPOTS, AND UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S EVERYWHERE ELSE ARE FORECAST, AGAIN NOTABLY WARMER
THAN IN PREVIOUS NBM RUNS. FRIDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S, UPPER 50S IN GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND 70S IN THE BIG BEND ARE DISPLAYED IN NBM
GRIDS AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THE CWA AND WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO NORTHERLY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW RIDGING CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. SO WHILE CORE OF HIGHEST TEMPERATURES REMAINS TO
THE WEST, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TO 70S SATURDAY AND COOLER NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER SUNDAY, AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, WITH WARMER LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z WILL PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 49 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 37 63 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 52 75 55 72 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 44 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 42 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 39 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 40 69 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 46 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 45 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 39 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10
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