541
FXUS64 KMAF 161423 AAB
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 815 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
FOG HAS BECOME PATCHY ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE GONE AROUND 10 AM CST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM CST FOR THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION AND MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG A COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE EXTRA SPACE DURING YOUR MORNING
COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
IT IS YET ANOTHER MILD MORNING DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINNING
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS COLD
FRONT IS BEING AIDED IN ITS ADVANCE BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, MOIST CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. AT THIS
TIME, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE MOSTLY MINOR, BUT LOCALIZED DENSE
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAREST THE COLD FRONT. MOST
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH ANY 30S CONFINED TO THE FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY
BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FOG CLEARS AS SOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH YOUR LOCATION AND WE EXPECT THIS SLOW-MOVING FRONT TO HAVE
MOVED THROUGH MOST THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S, THIS IS STILL 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE AFTERNOON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
CONTINUE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN'T LAST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
TONIGHT KEEPING THE REGION MILD ONCE AGAIN. MANY SEE TEMPERATURES
THAT REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH ANY 30S CONFINED TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THUS CONTINUING OUR WARM STRETCH.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN, A MILD MORNING WITH MANY SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S IS EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER,
RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND AND TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH THE ONLY
70S CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
BEYOND THIS BRIEF COOL DOWN, IT IS MOSTLY THE SAME EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
TO OUR WEST KEEP US DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY IN THE 60S, RETURN BY THURSDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. THE SAME CAN BE SAID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL HOLD IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S EACH MORNING. OUR WARM
DECEMBER CONTINUES.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 64 32 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 76 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 62 40 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 63 33 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 70 38 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 40 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 40 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 69 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...91
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