069
FXUS64 KMAF 170500
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1100 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH GUADALUPE
PASS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS
OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
HAS CLEARED OUT AS DRIER AIR HAS WORKED BACK IN BEHIND THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE INDICATED TODAY IN NBM
GRIDS, BUT HEATING FROM SOLAR RADIATION WILL BE OFFSET BY CAA
BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT. HIGHS BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL 7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, LOWER
TO MID 60S SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, MID TO UPPER
60S CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND MOST OF
STOCKTON PLATEAU, 70S BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INTO RIO GRANDE
BASINS AND TERRELL COUNTY INTO SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, WITH LOWER
80S BIG BEND. TONIGHT, AS CAA DECREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
AWAY FORM THE AREA, WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
KEEPS LOWS 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ASIDE FROM LOWS CLOSER TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY AND BIG BEND INTO
TERRELL COUNTY. LOWS IN MID 30S SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, LOWER TO
MID 40S PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTIES INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TO MID 50S TERRELL COUNTY ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AS
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AGAIN ADVECT IN INCREASED MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 30S NM/TX BORDER AND
NORTHWEST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS, TO LOWER 50S EASTERNMOST PARTS OF CWA.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP COMPARED TO TODAY, 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH MID 60S TO UPPER 60S SE NM PLAINS INTO MOST OF PERMIAN
BASIN, AND 70S ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM LOWER 80S IN BIG BEND. TUESDAY
NIGHT, WARMER LOWS THAN MONDAY NIGHT ARE ALSO FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INHIBITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE APART FROM AGAIN
CLOSER TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY AND BIG
BEND INTO TERRELL COUNTY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER
30S SE NM PLAINS INTO BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND PEAKS OF DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM LOWER 50S FROM
BIG BEND INTO TERRELL COUNTY. LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM, SO APPLIED 1:1 BLEND OF NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND CONSALL
TO ALL OF THE CWA FOR WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.
MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG
BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH STRONG (35-45 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH) NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ALSO POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING GUADALUPE PASS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE LOWER TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OTHERWISE LOOKS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S RETURN
THIS WEEKEND. LOWS EACH MORNING LARGELY RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 36 70 43 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 31 69 38 57 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 51 73 50 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 39 76 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 40 64 38 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 33 66 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 37 70 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 36 69 44 59 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 38 68 44 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 35 68 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...29
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