710
FXUS64 KMAF 171116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
GUADALUPE PASS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE A HIGH
WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL ON WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN
A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL
LIKELY SEE SIMILAR NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH ISOLATED 40S
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE BACK OVER
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A TOUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S RETURN FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AS EVERYWHERE ELSE CLIMBS
INTO THE UPPER 60S.
THIS WARM UP IS SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH SUNRISE, A GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH CLOSER TO FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
STRONGER FRONT AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
CHANNELED THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS IN WEST TEXAS. WITH GAP WINDS
EXPECTED A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE PASS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THIS ONLY RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR THE REGION.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN STAGNATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS AND IS MAINTAINED TO OUR WEST WITH OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. THESE
DISTURBANCES MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, BUT THESE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES EACH
AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S EACH DAY, EXCEPT MAYBE A
HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY. ABOVE FREEZING
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH MOST SEEING UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S AROUND SUNRISE EACH DAY. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS TO BE
EXPECTED WITHOUT A HINT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. ALL
REMAINS QUIET LEADING INTO THE HOLIDAYS.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO VEER AS THIS
OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 42 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 69 38 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 74 50 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 78 43 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 64 39 51 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 67 37 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 70 39 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 70 43 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 70 43 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 70 40 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...91
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