812
FXUS64 KMAF 172057 CCA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
GUADALUPE PASS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL ON WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING THE AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOW
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
WHERE HIGHS REACH THE LOW 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER
70S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.
TONIGHT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION, BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
DESPITE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PICK UP AND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR MANY. GAP WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE PASS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, PROMPTING AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FROM A HIGH WIND WATCH WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 35-45 MPH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST. NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND THE
LOWER TRANS-PECOS SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. RIDGING
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
-GREENING
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT AROUND 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT LOWER TO
MID 40S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND/LOWER TRANS PECOS. HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE POST-FRONTAL AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH SOME LOCATIONS (CNM,
HOB, MAF) SEEING HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHEAR
AROUND THE TIME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AT MAF, HOB, PEQ,
AND INK. THIS WILL BE LOOKED AT CAREFULLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE TAF
PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 41 57 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 38 57 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 50 64 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 41 59 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 51 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 36 56 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 38 57 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 42 58 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 43 58 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 38 60 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO NOON CST /11 AM
MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55
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