780
FGUS74 KMAF 191825
ESFMAF
TXC033-227-335-415-201830-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO AND PECOS RIVER BASINS
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND, TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN WEST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS
SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE COLORADO RIVER AT COLORADO CITY HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 15.0 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
COLORADO CITY FORECAST POINT WILL NOT RISE ABOVE 4.2 FEET DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID [ 12/22/2024 - 03/22/2025 ]
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
COLORADO RIVER
COLORADO CITY 15.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.9 7.6 10.3
DEEP CREEK
DUNN 1W 14.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.9
BEALS CREEK
WESTBROOK 11S 22.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 5.0 5.6 6.1 7.8 9.3
PECOS RIVER
ARTESIA 6E 12.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.2 6.2 7.0 8.7
CARLSBAD 9NW 20.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.1
CARLSBAD 2E 14.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3
MALAGA 3ESE 30.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 4.0
MALAGA 10S 20.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.6
SHEFFIELD 3ESE 28.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
RIO PENASCO
DAYTON 2WNW 20.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
FOURMILE DRAW
LAKEWOOD 4NNW 12.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
ROCKY ARROYO
LAKEWOOD 7S 12.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
DARK CANYON
CARLSBAD 15.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
BLACK RIVER
MALAGA 5W 18.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
DELAWARE RIVER
RED BLUFF 11NW 26.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1
INDEPENDENCE CREEK
SHEFFIELD 18SSE 11.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4
LAKE JB THOMAS
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2238.1 2238.1 2238.1 2238.1 2238.1 2238.4 2239.1 2239.2 2240.0
LAKE COLORADO CITY
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2064.3 2064.3 2064.3 2064.3 2064.3 2064.3 2064.4 2064.7 2065.1
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2065.5 2065.5 2065.5 2065.5 2065.5 2065.5 2065.6 2065.7 2065.9
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE. BY
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=MAF
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
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