737
FXUS64 KMAF 200500
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1100 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
- A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SUNNY SKIES, AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT
10-20 MPH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY CONSIDERING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE MSLP GRADIENT WITH THE PASSING BOUNDARY.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT, BUT WE DID BUMP UP FORECAST WIND SPEEDS TO 25-35 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE PASS LATE.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKING ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM 30-35
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, AND MARFA PLATEAU AREAS.
LOWS ALONG THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND THE BIG
BEND/RIO GRANDE SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
-LINDSEY
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS WHERE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS
EVIDENT. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S) TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z, SHIFTING WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT AND CLEAR SKIES, FRIDAY
MORNING STARTS OFF WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 30S IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. LOCATIONS IN THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY, BIG BEND, AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY'S TEMPERTURES, WHERE HIGHS ARE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST. SPOTS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS ARE FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, LETTING LOW
TEMPERATURES BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS.
-GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A MUNDANE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
REIGN OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS STAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO 40S EACH MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A PAIR OF WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THAT LOOK TO PUSH WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH EITHER OF
THESE SYSTEMS, BUT TEMPERATURES DO DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL BY A FEW
DEGREES. THE CHRISTMAS FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND DRY, BUT
NOT WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 70 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 68 33 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 70 43 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 36 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 36 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 68 32 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 69 30 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 68 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 68 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 71 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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