308
FXUS64 KMAF 201112
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
- A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL
- DRY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- WEAK COLD FRONTS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DROP HIGHS DOWN TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION, KEEPING THE COLDER
AIR LOCKED WELL AWAY FROM US. WE NEED FOR THE JET TO AMPLIFY IN
ORDER TO BRING US MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SO FAR THIS SEASON
THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. TOMORROW THERE WILL BE A QUICK RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP A FEW DEGREES.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT CORE OF MID TO UPPER
RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES, WITH LOWER TO MID 30S SE NM
PLAINS, UPPER TRANS PECOS, BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, AND DAVIS
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER
RIDGING. LOWS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK END UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AND RANGING FROM MID 30S IN USUAL COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE INDICATED
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, DROPPING HIGHS DOWN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN MID 60S TO MID 70S ON
CHRISTMAS DAY ARE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT AGAIN DROPS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY'S BRIEF WARM-UP. ON BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK, HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH 70S CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE BASINS, ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP FRIDAY
AS CAA FROM THURSDAY'S WEAKENS, WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AND RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. DESPITE THE
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, AND
NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 61 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 58 33 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 66 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 62 41 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 55 40 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 59 34 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 64 36 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 61 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 61 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 60 36 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10
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