503
FXUS64 KMAF 202345
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
- DRY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- WEAK COLD FRONTS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DROP HIGHS DOWN TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A RATHER PEDESTRIAN FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO IN THE SHORT TERM.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, LEAVING THE AREA UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO MEXICO, AND
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FORTUNATELY, SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER BACK TO RETURN FLOW AND
BEGIN REPLENISHING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING'S.
SATURDAY, DESPITE BEING THE START OF WINTER, THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEST WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND RETURN FLOW OVER THE EAST, TO YIELD
AFTERNOON HIGHS AN ALMOST-PLEASANT 8-10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA, POSSIBLE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE PERMIAN BASIN
NEAR SUNUP. THIS WILL ADD ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS, BRINGING THEM UP TO ~ 7-9 F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE END OF DECEMBER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLD ON THROUGH THE WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TO START THE COMING WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MOVE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MODERATES TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ENSEMBLES DO PAINT THE SECOND
SYSTEM IN A DIFFERENT LIGHT AS THERE ARE LOW (<15%) CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY. EVEN IF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MATERIALIZE,
AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 36 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 31 65 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 39 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 39 71 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 39 60 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 33 66 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 35 68 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 37 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 38 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 33 67 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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