653
FXUS64 KMAF 142322
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WIND CHILLS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE DANGEROUS WITH EXTENDED EXPOSURE.
- A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE (< 25%) OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST-TO-
EAST). WINDS FLOW EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE WITHIN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH
60S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WEDNESDAY'S NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE END OF THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE BEAUTIFUL, BUT THIS IS ONLY A
FACADE FOR WHAT IS TO FOLLOW. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CLIMB FURTHER ON FRIDAY IN PART DUE
TO A WARM, DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS. MOST SEE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME 70S. THESE WEST WINDS RESULT FROM AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAK CAUSES STRONG WINDS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND HAZARD PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON BAY
WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS PATTERN,
TIMING IS LIKELY TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN MUCH COLDER
WEATHER MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS AREAS TO THE
SOUTH HANG ON TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN STRUGGLE
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION.
THE NEW WEEK SEES THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO START IN THE TEENS AND THEN STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MANY. THE TEENS RETURN BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRIGID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
LARGELY IN THE 30S. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY COLD, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN WORSE. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY COLD AND ANOMALOUS, RECORDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE BROKEN WITH THIS CURRENT FORECAST. REGARDLESS, PROPER PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH THIS COLD WEATHER PATTERN. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PREPARE.
THE DURATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WE LIKELY
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THAT
SAID, A SLOW AND STEADY WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 27 55 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 27 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 35 59 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 31 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 30 47 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 25 52 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 28 55 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 28 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 29 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 28 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...11
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