744
FXUS64 KMAF 151109
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WIND CHILLS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE DANGEROUS WITH EXTENDED EXPOSURE.
- A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE (< 25%) OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
NIGHT FOG AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES, LOWER TO MID 50S, MID TO
UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND IN RIO GRANDE BASINS. HIGHS HAVE
TRENDED UP A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST
BUT WILL SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, LOWS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE AND BELOW FREEZING APART FROM
ABOVE FREEZING IN MID 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND INTO TERRELL
COUNTY ARE FORECAST.
HIGHER HEIGHTS, AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THE ONLY MAJOR
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT HAS CHANGED, LEADING TO HIGHS AND LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED IN LAST FEW NBM RUNS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES IN RIO GRANDE BASINS. NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE IN
THE LONG TERM. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THIS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FRIDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY IN THIS FORECAST WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET BECOMES
POSITIONED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE CWA CAUSING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SENDS
HIGHS UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
CONDITIONS CHANGE DRASTICALLY SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WEST
COAST RIDGE COMBINE TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND UNLEASH VERY COLD
AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY, THEN WAIT FOR THE
AIR MASS TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST
THAT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK AND
WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST THREAT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THUS THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. POPS ARE KEPT AT 20 PERCENT AND BELOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH VERY COLD AND MOIST LOWER
LEVELS FAVORS EITHER FLURRY TYPE OF FINE SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IF THE MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW. THESE FINE DETAILS
WILL CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WILL
STEER SYSTEMS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING ONLY A VERY GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. NORTHERLY WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
01Z-05Z THURSDAY OVER REEVES COUNTY PLAINS INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU
AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN, AND REMAINING SOUTHERLY AT TERMINALS IN
THESE REGIONS INTO END OF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 55 29 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 52 27 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 60 38 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 55 34 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 47 33 54 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 53 26 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 31 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 55 30 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 55 32 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 55 29 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94
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