135
FXUS64 KMAF 152022
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AND
LOOSE OBJECTS BLOWING AROUND ARE LIKELY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WIND CHILLS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE DANGEROUS WITH EXTENDED EXPOSURE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION, HELPS KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S. BY TOMORROW, WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY,
ALLOWING FOR THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. THIS, ALONG WITH THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, WILL CAUSE
THURSDAY'S HIGHS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
FOR MOST). LIKEWISE, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
OVERALL, THE SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. HOWEVER, THE SAME CANNOT
BE SAID OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSE A COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION PARTIALLY AS A
RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
DRIVEN BY A 50+ KT 700MB AND 90+ KT 500MB SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A LARGE SWATH OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
PERHAPS THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
ONCE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS, THE WEEKEND SEES THE BEGINNINGS OF OUR
ADVERTISED ARCTIC BLAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HELPS TO USHER
A POTENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPILL INTO OUR
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY ON SATURDAY. AREAS NORTH OF THE PECOS
RIVER WILL ALREADY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER CAN EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BEFORE THEY
TOO SUCCUMB TO THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN A FRIGID SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SEE
TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
SIMILAR FRIGID WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO
START THE WEEK ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY. THIS MAKES TEENS MORE PREVALENT TO START
THE DAY WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE
THIS AIRMASS IS MOSTLY DRY, ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE MAY GENERATE
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
AND THIS WILL BE MERELY A FURTHER INDICATION OF THE VERY COLD
WEATHER. TUESDAY OFFERS VERY LITTLE FOR DIURNAL WARMING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP MOST IN THE 30S WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK COMBINE WITH MODEST WINDS TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.
AFTER ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON WEDNESDAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO RETURN. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE SHOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW ALL TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS CHILLY, IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT OVER TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND MAY BE SOMETHING TO LOOK
FORWARD TO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
BOTTOM LINE: NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR FRIGID TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR
PEQ AND FST. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 29 60 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 28 58 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 39 61 42 74 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 34 64 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 34 54 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 27 57 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 32 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 31 59 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 32 59 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 30 59 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...13
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