753
FXUS64 KMAF 160925
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AND
LOOSE OBJECTS BLOWING AROUND ARE LIKELY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WIND CHILLS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE DANGEROUS WITH EXTENDED EXPOSURE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
NIGHT FOG AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. NBM GRIDS SHOW HIGH CLOUD COVER DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING MORE SOLAR HEATING AS WELL AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE WINDS UNDER WEAK RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL
MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB 4 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND FAR EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND NEAR AVERAGE SE NM
PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S CULBERSON COUNTY INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS AS WELL AS UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, AND 60S TO LOWER 70S PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND.
TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY, AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE BASE
OF AN APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN NM INTO TX PANHANDLE
TO THE NORTH AND WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA. GRIDS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING AGAIN WITH INCREASING LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THESE
FEATURES, WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULT IN LOWS
12 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
TOMORROW WITH INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM DAYTIME
HEATING, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE,
GUSTING UP TO 75 MPH OR MORE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SURROUNDING
FOOTHILLS INTO SE NM PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND 35 TO 45
MPH ELSEWHERE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR THE
GUADALUPES AND MARFA PLATEAU TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AND RECENT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS,
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MOST OF
THE AREA APART FROM TERRELL COUNTY, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND
CREATING MORE DRIVING HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BUT ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING FROM WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE 8
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO MID TO UPPER 60S, LOWER TO MID
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 70S AND ABOVE, LOWER 80S IN BIG BEND,
IN SOUTHERNMOST RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND EASTERN
STOCKTON PLATEAU. TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE JET MAX BRINGING THE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST
SENDS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE INITIAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND STALL OUT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO THE BIG BEND. THIS BEGINS A
PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND HIGHS
ONLY REACHING UP INTO THE 30S.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER. EVEN
VERY COLD AIR MASSES HAVE SHOWN A REMARKABLE ABILITY TO WARM
GIVEN CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER DESI ENSEMBLES SHOW THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY, HELPING TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S, POSSIBLY EVEN
BELOW FREEZING. THEY ALSO SHOW THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY,
SO ANY MOISTURE WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850MB
AND 700MB. SUCH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE LOW, WITH LIGHT FLURRIES
AND NO ACCUMULATIONS MOST LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED, BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW LEVEL MAXIMUM MORNING HUMIDITIES ONLY IN
THE 50S TO 70S. DRIZZLE IS DIFFICULT WITH HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 80
TO 85 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE TOO MUCH EVAPORATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN CUTS OFF THE
COLDER ARCTIC AIR AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOST
OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 42 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 57 37 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 62 42 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 46 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 40 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 57 37 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 61 40 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 43 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 59 43 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 59 40 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94
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